Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly Plebejus argus at the northern edge of its range

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordSpecies are often observed to occur in restricted patches of particularly warm microclimate at their high latitude/altitude geographic range margin. In these areas, global warming is expected to cause small-scale expansion of the occupied area, but most previous studies of range expansion have used very coarse scale data. Using high resolution microclimate models together with detailed field surveys, we tested whether the butterfly Plebejus argus, occurring on limestone grassland in north Wales, was responding as might be expected due to climate change in the last 30-40 yr. The abundance of adult Plebejus argus at 100 m resolution in 2011 was strongly affected by elevation and near-ground temperatures in May. A statistical model including microclimate, fitted to 2011 data, was successful (67% correct) at hindcasting the occurrence of Plebejus argus in 1983 when the average May air temperature was 1.4°C cooler. However, the model was less accurate at hindcasting occurrences in 1972 (50% correct). Given the distribution of micro-sites in this landscape, we predict that further warming of approximately 1°C would make the majority of sites highly microclimatically suitable for this species. There are a growing number of long-term studies of range change, and investigations into the mechanisms driving them, but still surprisingly few that explicitly make and test predictions with independent data. Our tests are a valuable example of how accurate predictions of distribution change can be, but also of the inevitable uncertainties. Improved understanding of how well models predict will be very important to plan robust climate change adaptation measures.JAH, JJB, RJW and CDT were supported by NERC grant NE/G006377/1 (). Fieldwork by JAH and NL was supported by a pump-priming grant from the Dept of Biology, Univ. of York

A geometric network model of intrinsic grey-matter connectivity of the human brain

Network science provides a general framework for analysing the large-scale brain networks that naturally arise from modern neuroimaging studies, and a key goal in theoretical neuro- science is to understand the extent to which these neural architectures influence the dynamical processes they sustain. To date, brain network modelling has largely been conducted at the macroscale level (i.e. white-matter tracts), despite growing evidence of the role that local grey matter architecture plays in a variety of brain disorders. Here, we present a new model of intrinsic grey matter connectivity of the human connectome. Importantly, the new model incorporates detailed information on cortical geometry to construct ‘shortcuts’ through the thickness of the cortex, thus enabling spatially distant brain regions, as measured along the cortical surface, to communicate. Our study indicates that structures based on human brain surface information differ significantly, both in terms of their topological network characteristics and activity propagation properties, when compared against a variety of alternative geometries and generative algorithms. In particular, this might help explain histological patterns of grey matter connectivity, highlighting that observed connection distances may have arisen to maximise information processing ability, and that such gains are consistent with (and enhanced by) the presence of short-cut connections

Small Big Data: Using multiple data-sets to explore unfolding social and economic change

Bold approaches to data collection and large-scale quantitative advances have long been a preoccupation for social science researchers. In this commentary we further debate over the use of large-scale survey data and official statistics with ‘Big Data’ methodologists, and emphasise the ability of these resources to incorporate the essential social and cultural heredity that is intrinsic to the human sciences. In doing so, we introduce a series of new data-sets that integrate approximately 30 years of survey data on victimisation, fear of crime and disorder and social attitudes with indicators of socio-economic conditions and policy outcomes in Britain. The data-sets that we outline below do not conform to typical conceptions of ‘Big Data’. But, we would contend, they are ‘big’ in terms of the volume, variety and complexity of data which has been collated (and to which additional data can be linked) and ‘big’ also in that they allow us to explore key questions pertaining to how social and economic policy change at the national level alters the attitudes and experiences of citizens. Importantly, they are also ‘small’ in the sense that the task of rendering the data usable, linking it and decoding it, required both manual processing and tacit knowledge of the context of the data and intentions of its creators

Imaging spontaneous currents in superconducting arrays of pi-junctions

Superconductors separated by a thin tunneling barrier exhibit the Josephson effect that allows charge transport at zero voltage, typically with no phase shift between the superconductors in the lowest energy state. Recently, Josephson junctions with ground state phase shifts of pi proposed by theory three decades ago have been demonstrated. In superconducting loops, pi-junctions cause spontaneous circulation of persistent currents in zero magnetic field, analogous to spin-1/2 systems. Here we image the spontaneous zero-field currents in superconducting networks of temperature-controlled pi-junctions with weakly ferromagnetic barriers using a scanning SQUID microscope. We find an onset of spontaneous supercurrents at the 0-pi transition temperature of the junctions Tpi = 3 K. We image the currents in non-uniformly frustrated arrays consisting of cells with even and odd numbers of pi-junctions. Such arrays are attractive model systems for studying the exotic phases of the 2D XY-model and achieving scalable adiabatic quantum computers.Comment: Pre-referee version. Accepted to Nature Physic

Long-term organic carbon preservation enhanced by iron and manganese.

The balance between degradation and preservation of sedimentary organic carbon (OC) is important for global carbon and oxygen cycles1. The relative importance of different mechanisms and environmental conditions contributing to marine sedimentary OC preservation, however, remains unclear2-8. Simple organic molecules can be geopolymerized into recalcitrant forms by means of the Maillard reaction5, although reaction kinetics at marine sedimentary temperatures are thought to be slow9,10. More recent work in terrestrial systems suggests that the reaction can be catalysed by manganese minerals11-13, but the potential for the promotion of geopolymerized OC formation at marine sedimentary temperatures is uncertain. Here we present incubation experiments and find that iron and manganese ions and minerals abiotically catalyse the Maillard reaction by up to two orders of magnitude at temperatures relevant to continental margins where most preservation occurs4. Furthermore, the chemical signature of the reaction products closely resembles dissolved and total OC found in continental margin sediments globally. With the aid of a pore-water model14, we estimate that iron- and manganese-catalysed transformation of simple organic molecules into complex macromolecules might generate on the order of approximately 4.1 Tg C yr-1 for preservation in marine sediments. In the context of perhaps only about 63 Tg C yr-1 variation in sedimentary organic preservation over the past 300 million years6, we propose that variable iron and manganese inputs to the ocean could exert a substantial but hitherto unexplored impact on global OC preservation over geological time

Transcription profiling reveals potential mechanisms of dysbiosis in the oral microbiome of rhesus macaques with chronic untreated SIV infection.

A majority of individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have inadequate access to antiretroviral therapy and ultimately develop debilitating oral infections that often correlate with disease progression. Due to the impracticalities of conducting host-microbe systems-based studies in HIV infected patients, we have evaluated the potential of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infected rhesus macaques to serve as a non-human primate model for oral manifestations of HIV disease. We present the first description of the rhesus macaque oral microbiota and show that a mixture of human commensal bacteria and "macaque versions" of human commensals colonize the tongue dorsum and dental plaque. Our findings indicate that SIV infection results in chronic activation of antiviral and inflammatory responses in the tongue mucosa that may collectively lead to repression of epithelial development and impact the microbiome. In addition, we show that dysbiosis of the lingual microbiome in SIV infection is characterized by outgrowth of Gemella morbillorum that may result from impaired macrophage function. Finally, we provide evidence that the increased capacity of opportunistic pathogens (e.g. E. coli) to colonize the microbiome is associated with reduced production of antimicrobial peptides

The Effectiveness of Alcohol Screening and Brief Intervention in Emergency Departments: A Multicentre Pragmatic Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Alcohol misuse is common in people attending emergency departments (EDs) and there is some evidence of efficacy of alcohol screening and brief interventions (SBI). This study investigated the effectiveness of SBI approaches of different intensities delivered by ED staff in nine typical EDs in England: the SIPS ED trial. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pragmatic multicentre cluster randomized controlled trial of SBI for hazardous and harmful drinkers presenting to ED. Nine EDs were randomized to three conditions: a patient information leaflet (PIL), 5 minutes of brief advice (BA), and referral to an alcohol health worker who provided 20 minutes of brief lifestyle counseling (BLC). The primary outcome measure was the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) status at 6 months. Of 5899 patients aged 18 or more presenting to EDs, 3737 (63·3%) were eligible to participate and 1497 (40·1%) screened positive for hazardous or harmful drinking, of whom 1204 (80·4%) gave consent to participate in the trial. Follow up rates were 72% (n?=?863) at six, and 67% (n?=?810) at 12 months. There was no evidence of any differences between intervention conditions for AUDIT status or any other outcome measures at months 6 or 12 in an intention to treat analysis. At month 6, compared to the PIL group, the odds ratio of being AUDIT negative for brief advice was 1·103 (95% CI 0·328 to 3·715). The odds ratio comparing BLC to PIL was 1·247 (95% CI 0·315 to 4·939). A per protocol analysis confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: SBI is difficult to implement in typical EDs. The results do not support widespread implementation of alcohol SBI in ED beyond screening followed by simple clinical feedback and alcohol information, which is likely to be easier and less expensive to implement than more complex interventions

A Prospective Randomized Study on Two Dose Fractionation Regimens of High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy for Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: Comparison of Efficacies and Toxicities Between Two Regimens

To evaluate the toxicities and efficacies of two fractionation regimens of high-dose-rate brachytherapy in uterine cervical cancer, patients were stratified by stage Ib-IIa versus IIb-IVa, and randomly assigned to receive 3 Gy fractions (group A) or 5 Gy fractions (group B). External radiotherapy was performed using a 10 MV radiography with a daily 1.8 Gy up to 30.6 Gy to the whole pelvis, and then with a midline shield up to 45.0 Gy. Brachytherapy was performed with 3 Gy × 10 times or 5 Gy × 5 times, and this was followed by booster brachytherapy of a smaller fraction to the residual tumor. Between August 1999 to July 2000, 46 patients were eligible. Median follow-up period was 42 months (5-49). The range of age was 37-83 yr (median, 58). The three-year disease-specific survival rates of group A (n=23) and B (n=23) were 90.5%, 84.9%, respectively (p=0.64). The three-year pelvic control rates of group A and B were 90.0% and 90.9%, respectively (p=0.92). The incidences of late complications of the rectum or bladder of grade 2 or greater in groups A and B were 23.8% and 9.1%, respectively (p=0.24). Our study showed that the results of two regimens were comparable. Fractionation regimen using 5 Gy fractions seems to be safe and effective, and offers shorter treatment duration

Localisation of RNAs into the germ plasm of vitellogenic xenopus oocytes

We have studied the localisation of mRNAs in full-grown Xenopus laevis oocytes by injecting fluorescent RNAs, followed by confocal microscopy of the oocyte cortex. Concentrating on RNA encoding the Xenopus Nanos homologue, nanos1 (formerly Xcat2), we find that it consistently localised into aggregated germ plasm ribonucleoprotein (RNP) particles, independently of cytoskeletal integrity. This implies that a diffusion/entrapment-mediated mechanism is active, as previously reported for previtellogenic oocytes. Sometimes this was accompanied by localisation into scattered particles of the “late”, Vg1/VegT pathway; occasionally only late pathway localisation was seen. The Xpat RNA behaved in an identical fashion and for neither RNA was the localisation changed by any culture conditions tested. The identity of the labelled RNP aggregates as definitive germ plasm was confirmed by their inclusion of abundant mitochondria and co-localisation with the germ plasm protein Hermes. Further, the nanos1/Hermes RNP particles are interspersed with those containing the germ plasm protein Xpat. These aggregates may be followed into the germ plasm of unfertilized eggs, but with a notable reduction in its quantity, both in terms of injected molecules and endogenous structures. Our results conflict with previous reports that there is no RNA localisation in large oocytes, and that during mid-oogenesis even germ plasm RNAs localise exclusively by the late pathway. We find that in mid oogenesis nanos1 RNA also localises to germ plasm but also by the late pathway. Late pathway RNAs, Vg1 and VegT, also may localise into germ plasm. Our results support the view that mechanistically the two modes of localisation are extremely similar, and that in an injection experiment RNAs might utilise either pathway, the distinction in fates being very subtle and subject to variation. We discuss these results in relation to their biological significance and the results of others